JEGER JERSEY INDONESIA | The Largest Indonesian Soccer Merch Online shop | Jersey ISL 2013 - 2014

JEGER JERSEY | www.Jerseyindonesia.com merupakan situs yang menjual baju bola, disini gudangnya jersey klub lokal indonesia khususnya ISL. Dan kami bersedia mensuplai keberbagai wilayah di indonesia bahkan luar negri.

 pernak pernik klub ISL, supplier jersey isl , vendor jersey, Distro Merchandise Suporter Sepakbola dengan metode e-commerce / online shop

PROMO SPECIAL TAHUN BARU 2014:

Mulai tanggal 26 November 2013, semua jersey ISL 2013/2014 di Jeger Jersey

DISKON jadi Rp.100.000,- . STOK TERBATAS!!!

Backpack, Jersey ISL 2013 dan Jersey ISL 2014 yang READY STOCK

>> Jersey ISL 2014

• Jersey PERSIJA 2014 HOME 
• Jersey PERSIJA 2014 AWAY 
• Jersey PERSIB Pre Season 2013-2014 'ACHILLES'

HARGA :

•  Jersey + Full Sponsor + Patch = Rp.100.000,-
•  Jersey + Full Sponsor + Patch + Nameset = Rp.150.000,-

 

New Jersey PERSIJA 2014

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 

>> Jersey ISL 2013

• Jersey PERSIB HOME (Biru)
• Jersey PERSIB AWAY (Putih)
• Jersey GK PERSIB (Hitam)
• Jersey GK PERSIB (Merah)
• Jersey GK PERSIB (Kuning)
• Jersey PERSIB LADIES (Biru)

• Jersey PERSIPURA HOME (Merah - Hitam)
• Jersey PERSIPURA AWAY (Putih)

• Jersey AREMA HOME (Biru)
• Jersey AREMA AWAY (Putih)
• Jersey AREMA AWAY (Merah)

• Jersey SRIWIJAYA HOME (Kuning)
• Jersey SRIWIJAYA AWAY (Putih)
• Jersey SRIWIJAYA AWAY (Hitam)

• Jersey BARITO PUTERA (Kuning)

• Jersey MITRA KUKAR HOME (Kuning)
• Jersey MITRA KUKAR AWAY (Hijau)

• Jersey PERSEPAM MADURA UNITED (Merah - Putih) 

• Jersey PERSIJA HOME(Orange)

• Jersey PBR HOME (Biru) 
• Jersey PBR AWAY (Merah)
• Jersey PBR AWAY (Putih)

• Jersey PERSISAM HOME (Orange)  
• Jersey PERSISAM AWAY (Putih)  

• Jersey PERSIBA HOME (Biru)  
• Jersey PERSIBA AWAY (Putih)  

• Jersey TIMNAS INDONESIA HOME (Merah) 

HARGA : Jersey + Full Sponsor + Patch = Rp.100.000,-Jersey + Full Sponsor + Patch + Nameset = Rp.150.000,-

---------------------------------------------------------------------

>> JACKET/ SWEATER ISL

• Sweater PERSIPURA (Hitam - Merah)

HARGA SWEATER : Rp.145.000,-

---------------------------------------------------------------------

>> TAS/ BAG/ BACKPACK ISL 2014

• Backpack PERSIPURA (Hitam - Merah)
• Backpack AREMA (Biru)
• Backpack PERSIB (Biru)
• Backpack PERSISAM (Orange)
• Backpack PERSEPAM MADURA UNITED (Merah - Putih)
• Backpack BARITO PUTRA (Kuning)
• Backpack PBR (Biru)
• Backpack SRIWIJAYA (Kuning)
• Backpack SRIWIJAYA (Hitam)
• Backpack MITRA KUKAR (Kuning)

HARGA BACKPACK : Rp.115.000,-

Tas PERSIPURA Bintang 4

---------------------------------------------------------------------

FORMAT PEMESANAN : NAMA - ALAMAT - NO.HP - DAFTAR PESANAN 

Kirim ke :

• SMS : 08997147466
• LINE: JegerJersey

Pengen sukses bareng kami? Join RESELLER/ DROPSHIP SMS 08997147466/ BBM 2A5D5841. Jual jersey ISL 2014 yang murah dan berkualitas hanya di Jeger Jersey

Jersey ISL 2014 READY STOCK

Twitter      : @JegerJersey

Instagram  : JegerJerseyIndo

Web          : www.jerseyindonesia.com

facebook : Jeger Jersey

CARA BELANJA ORDER PEMESANAN ONLINE

source:

• About Jeger Jersey indonesia ISL
• Notes fanpage Jeger Jersey

Value laying in the Correct Score market

I have written previously about the opportunities presented by the Any Unquoted score in the Correct Score market. Just this week there have been two matches that I have noticed, and traded, both of which featured very low AU prices at kick off. One was in South America a night or two ago, but tonight there was a price on offer which really just had to be taken on.

In 16 Bundesliga matches prior to tonight Bayern Munich had scored 4 or more goals twice at home and once away from home. No opponent has so far been able to knock four or more past the Bavarians. Their opponents, Borussia Moenchengladbach (and I'm not going to type that bloody lot out every time! - let them be 'BMG'!), had played the same number of games and had conceded 4 or more twice, both times away from home. They had recorded 1 AU scoreline in their favour so far this season.

So in 32 games involving these two sides so far an AU score had been recorded on 6 occasions. Put another way it occurred 18.75% of the total. Yet I was able to take AU on at odds of 2.98 to lay pre kick off. The implied percentage of those odds is c33%. For those of you as inept at the maths of betting / trading as I am that is to say the market saw the possibility of four or more goals at approximately twice that suggested by the trend from 32 games.

In my mind's eye the odds on offer at kick off were roughly what I would have expected to see with Bayern a goal to the good after say fifteen minutes. To be honest my original intention was to have stayed in the trade for about twenty minutes before backing AU with the same stake as my original £50 lay and await the onslaught of goals for a free bet on that score. BMG, however, had other ideas and took the lead after about that period of time, whilst I was still in the trade. (As an aside, I noticed that 0-1 had been taken at prices north of 50 just before the penalty was awarded - it was 9.6 at half time so some made a good few quid there I'd think). The nice thing about AU is that it is normally very low only if there is a massive favourite. If the underdog scores first the market doesn't react in anywhere near the same fashion as it would had the favourites scored first. So I decided to tough it out and stick with the trade.

All credit to BMG - they held on at 0-1 until some way into the second half and ended up taking a very well earned point home with them. I ended up taking the liability out of  the lay as the price headed into the 8's and just let it run all the way home from there.

These opportunities happen several times in a season and I for one actively seek them out. Sure it's a bit of a liability laying at odds of between 3 and 5 but in my opinion it's always worth looking beyond the obvious ' team A is gonna spank team B' kind of assumption - which is what effectively happened with this market. Give it a go with modest stakes and you'll see what I mean.

Champions League opportunities

Eddie over at A Football Trader's Path has an interesting analysis of tonight's Group E fixtures which is worth a read. It's a subject which caused a bit of debate the other night in the Trading Football chatroom where numerous voices were shouting 'fix' very loudly.

The prices for the Shaktar v Juventus game do look suspiciously like a suspiciously obvious fix such that you might find in a late season Serie B or Serie C game in Italy. But, as Eddie says, there are reasons other than the obvious 'fix' why prices should be as they are. So let's take a theoretical 'what if' look at the competition as a whole from the context of Group E, and see if there's a low liability angle we might be able to exploit.

The Champions League is set up in such a way that there are very definite benefits to finishing first in the qualifying group stage. If we work on the basic assumption that any team in this competition would rather not play the likes of Barca, Real, Bayern and Man U in a knock out tie I think we would be on safe ground! Ordinarily I'd include the mighty Blues in that list but as we know they can't join that exclusive group this year, and with all the managerial shenanigans etc probably would not be as feared as the others anyway.

So, hopefully we can all agree that both Juve and Shaktar would a) like to qualify for the next stage and b) would both prefer to top the group. Shaktar don't need to worry about the former, they are through (and probably liking the thought of drawing the gooners in round two :-) ). I doubt at this stage that either side are looking too far beyond the second round, but if I were the Shaktar boss I think I'd rather face Chelsea again than Juventus as it stands at the moment. So with this particular match I see no advantage to Shaktar in sitting  back and taking a 0-0! Both teams have to try to win in my view, and on that basis the value I see in the Group E dynamic is a lay of Juve to qualify (1.32 at the time of writing).

Turning to the other game, I'll start by saying that having considered the appointment of Benitez since my last post / rant about it I now have concluded that I have just two questions:

1) Why on earth did Abramovich want to offer the job to Benitez?
2) Even more perplexing, why on earth did Benitez want to accept it?

But be that as it may it is clear that the Blues are far from firing on all cylinders, and that a hostile reaction from the faithful at the Bridge tonight is all but a given. They should walk this game, but with recent events I'm afraid (as a Chelsea supporter) that I find myself wondering if 1.13 is far too low a price. I'm not going to lay them, although I might regret that decision, but will rather be looking for the Blues to go ahead against the Danes preferably quite early in the evening and for Shaktar to get a goal against the Italians.

Two other games catch my eye this evening as being potential Scatter Gun opportunities - namely the matches between Celtic and Moscow and Lillte v Sevilla.

Good luck if you're trading the CL tonight!

Job Security

I've been a Chelsea fan since watching them draw 2-2 with the once mighty Leeds United in the 1970 FA Cup final with my late Uncle Arthur. From the heady heights of Dave Webb's winner in the replay at Maine Road I have stuck with them. From the days of Peter 'The Cat' Bonneti, 'Chopper' Ron, Peter Osgood, Alan Hudson et al through the doldrum years to the start of the resurgent Chelsea just prior to Roman Abramovic it has been, in the words of the song, a long and winding road. The club has known great success since Roman arrived with his money, league titles, FA and League Cups. The first London Club to bring home the big one as well. And, to cap it all, an operating profit in the last financial year. On the surface, all was well..........

However I'm finding it really hard to take what's been going on there of late, and worry for the future. The mishandling of the Terry situation, the completely pointless Clattergate nonsense and now the sacking of the man who won us the Champions League. It's too much for the sanity of a man of my advancing years.

So, I go onto Betfair this evening and see the opportunity to lay the fat waiter in the Next Chelsea Manager market at 1.03. Remembering reading a blog post (sorry, can't remember who penned it) about letting these markets 'come to you' I duly laid him for £250. A small liability, I acknowledge. But honestly, surely that was just an over hyped Redknapp-eque bit of nonsense, wasn't it? The weekend's beer and baccy money in the bank, you'd think. No way even Roman would appoint the man who caused us so much grief (somehow, not sure how!) as Liverpool manager, was there? Safe, sensible trade.

So now, we have yet another 'interim' manager. And it's f******g Benitez.

The mind boggles.

Growing the bank

When I started my blogging journey my principle aim was to improve my discipline in trading. My chosen vehicle was compounding (hence the url of this blog, even though the blog's name has changed). The idea was that by consistently making small, regular profits that my bank would grow steadily.

I no longer aim to win a certain amount, neither a sum of money nor a percentage of bank but I still think that process put me broadly on the right road. The reason for veering away from the compounding idea was basically that it isn't a sustainable long term strategy for growth - put simply the numbers  grow too large too quickly in the medium to long term and too slowly for an impatient bloke like me in the short term!

That said, it is a basic truth that a trader's bank is his / her main business asset and therefore needs some kind of plan to underpin it. It has been written often that one should not use money to gamble with that one can't afford to lose, and I think that is eminently sensible advice. But it's naive in the extreme to think that losses aren't going to come your way, no matter how good your analysis and your ability to seek out value trades, so some sort of bank management is needed. I trade principally for the fun and the challenge, and my main financial aim, believe it or not, is not to have to top my bank up!

The subject of growing / managing banks has come up recently in two of the blogs that I read every time they are updated. Sultan has expressed his desire to grow his bank over the forthcoming tennis season to five figures, the better to enable him to cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune as he tries to put himself in the position to trade professionally. I wish him well with that aim, although I wonder if that amount of bank is really needed to trade professionally.

In reply to a question from Bet19 and others, Cassini advises that people should aim to grow their bank and leave it alone  - neither needing to draw down from it or to top it up. A sort of 'retirement fund' if you like. I do wonder, as an aside, whether he genuinely has not withdrawn anything from his account - if it were me paying a 50% ish tax on my winnings I'm fooked if I'd leave 250 large in Betfair's coffers with no consideration in my direction at all!

Bet19 adopts a two bank approach. He has a 'short term' bank and a 'medium / long term' bank. I did something similar for a while a few years ago, but I'm sure Bet19's approach is more disciplined than mine! I had a day to day account, from which I'd siphon any winnings over a certain size into what I had somewhat optimistically christened my 'SpecToAcc' account (seriously, that was how the relevant spreadsheet area was named!). Lets just say there was considerably more speculation than accumulation going on there so the idea was swiftly ditched!

The point I'm labouring somewhat to make is that as with many things in life bank management is horses for courses to use an appropriate idiom. If you wish to live day to day, supplement your salary or build a nest egg for the future you need to have identified your goal, and to have worked out a method that works for your trading style, preferred sport(s) and time available. And stick to it!

A word of caution....

... from someone who should know better.

I made a painful mistake in a game during the 2010 World Cup. Trying to get matched on a particular price for U2.5 goals I allowed a £100 stake to go in-play with the 'Keep In Play' facility checked. The match started, I got distracted, and it got forgotton. About 15 minutes in there was a goal, and some lucky layer was able to gobble up my stake as it sat there waiting for the market to reform. Needless to say by the time I had realised what had happened there'd been another goal, so I really was upside down on the trade! A third goal in quick order killed me off completely.

They say it's not the mark of a foolish man to make a mistake. However, it IS the mark of a foolish man to make the same mistake again.

So s**t for brains left an unmatched half time lay of Leverkusen in the market with 'Keep In Play' checked yesterday evening. They scored after about 3 minutes and 1-0 it stayed. As it happens my intended trade would have failed had the bet been matched in any case, but that's not the point!

So, my advice is to use 'Keep In Play' with caution, and the second a market turns in-play cancel the 'Keep'!

Betfair calls the race to the White House

I have been following the USA Presidential Election for some weeks now, both on the TV, web and other media and have been reading Cassini's thoughts on the odds on offer. I didn't get involved with any trading during the run up, but managed to scalp a nice green by laying the incumbent at 1.09 at around midnight UK time last night, and hedging at 1.15 or so. Managed to do that a couple of times.

What I found most interesting about the whole thing is how the Betfair market, and Cassini to be fair to him, called this result some weeks ago. At the same time the catchphrases of the campaign seemed to be 'too close to call' and / or ' a close run thing'.

The convincing result for Obama, ultimately, is more a reflection of the US electoral system than the national split of opinion - hence the massive interest and focus on the key 'swing' states - chief of which was Ohio. This system has worked well for some time now but it would seem to be even less fair on the individual voter than our own much maligned 'first past the post' system spread across over 600 constituencies. A few hundred votes one way or the other in a key state decide the fate of whatever number of Electoral College seats that state has to offer. We might think it harsh that a Tory voter in Camberwell & Peckham effectively has no real voice in a General Election and neither does a Labour voter in Bromley and Chislehurst, but that effect is magnified enormously under the American system.

In my opinion Romney fought a good campaign bearing in mind the difficulties he faced. To gain the nomination he first had to court the more or less entirely un-electable preferences of the Tea Party and then to perform a balancing act of appeasing them and trying to appeal to the broader electorate. The fact that he managed to poll just under half of the total vote is testament to a great political skill and considerable public appeal.

I don't care for his religious views, but wouldn't vilify him for them either. There isn't a religious bone in my body, but I feel a sense of respect for someone who holds and defends a set of principles and standards out of a strong sense of conviction. We could do with some conviction in this country, where, for example, a sitting MP (drawing a rather nice salary from the public purse - care of you and I in other words) feels it's quite acceptable to disappear to the outback to take part in some vacuous 'reality' TV show whilst parliament is in session!

On balance I suspect that the Americans have returned the right man for the job. But anyone who thinks Obama's second term will become a great reforming presidency needs, in my opinion, to take a reality check. The Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives and the Democrats a  majority in the Senate. The American political model features a much more visible and real division of power than we have in the UK with the President being the Executive and Congress the Legislature. There are bound to be clashes and the President might well find himself hamstrung, despite Romney's calls for Americans to unite in an hour of need. The first challenge for the President Elect will come when America falls over the so-called Fiscal Cliff on 1st January 2013. Challenging times ahead for Mr Obama  - good luck to him.

I think I'll take more notice of the political markets on Betfair going forward. This one was quite easy to nick a few quid from and my suspicion is that it is a more realistic guide to what is likely to happen than opinion polls.

The importance of research

Matt, otherwise known by the rather mystifying moniker of 'IronyPirate', has an interesting blog going and it's well worth a read. I don't know where he got the name of his blog from, but I'm sure he consulted his lawyers before choosing it ;-)

Matt likes spreadsheets and trawling through data looking for reasoning to aid him in his decision making, an exercise which I must confess that, despite knowing that I should, I don't generally do. My research is normally restricted to a quick look at the H2H on the Betfair site and a glance at www.soccerway.com to give at least a crumb of comfort to my decision making. Advertisements for life assurance products and similar carry a warning along the lines of 'past performance is no guarantee of future performance' and football data needs to be treated with similar caution in my opinion. But as a guide it has to be better than nothing!

If your data mining produces a sure fire way of avoiding 0-0's, Matt, I'd bottle it if were you, and put me down for the first crate, please! As that's unlikely to happen I'll certainly keep a weather eye on your research and watch your strategies develop with interest.

Options, options, options

A great post by Eddie at A Football Trader's Path about a little trade that I did the other night. As he is much more of an analytical sort of bloke than me he back tested laying 2 goal leads across a couple of leagues with some interesting results. Take a look here.

Essentially all I did was to lay Cottbus in the Match Odds market when they were 0-2 in the second half of a Bundesliga 2 match against Bochum. The home team had started as marginal favourites in a classic Scatter Gun profiled match. In that particular instance I simply removed my liability in the market at 1-2 and let the trade run to be rewarded by a last gasp equaliser. I laid to £50 stakes in that game, but thought some people might be interested in exploring the different potential ways in which that trade might have been played.

To make the maths a bit easier let's assume I'd laid to £100 stakes. I laid at 1.06 and the price I took just after Bochum's first goal was 1.23.

A) Let it run. This is really quite simple - a £6 loss if it Cottbus won, £100 if they didn't. You pays your money and takes your choice!

B) Remove liability. This is also simple. My liability on a £100 lay at 1.06 would have been £6. To leave a scratch on a Cottbus win would have required a back stake of £26.08. That would have left £73.91 on the draw or Bochum or no profit or loss if Cottbus had held on. A free bet, if you like.

C) Hedge and recycle. Bochum's first goal came in the 73rd minute, so allowing for a little bit of injury time there was about 20 minutes of the match left. By hedging after the goal it would have been possible to have guaranteed a win whatever happened. Hedging at 1.23 would have given a green all over of £13.82 whatever the result. A doubling of my original exposure, so not too shaky. However, if I'd let then re-entered the market at, say, 1.10 for £100 I would have been ideally poised in this particular game... a very small profit on the Cottbus win (£3.82), and a much larger profit (£113.82) on any other result. But, importantly, I'd have had no downside at all - a win / win situation.

D) Back Cottbus. If I had felt that Cottbus were able to hold out for the win the other option would have been simply to back them for the same stake that I'd laid for originally. That would have left me with a scratch trade on Bochum or the draw and a whole £17 on Cottbus. Probably not the best value trade in the world, but of course there is nothing stopping me from mixing options C) an D) here to have the best of both worlds.

As always with Correct Score trading the timing of goals has a big impact on what you can, and choose to, do. In this particular trade the timing of the first goal was perfect ... soon enough to get a decent price movement yet with long enough left for anything to happen. The great thing about this sort of trade is that the liability won't hurt you too much, yet the upside is relatively large. If Bochum had left it until the 85th minute to get their first goal I reckon the price on Cottbus would have moved sufficiently to have allowed a scratch trade should I have wished to take it.

Talking about low liability lays, most traders in the chatroom tonight (including this one) had the Getafe v Betis game down as a low scoring hum drum affair, re-inforced by the fact that it was 0-0 at half time with half a dozen shots, few of which troubled wither goalie. I suggested a dutch of 1-1 2-0 0-2 which we greened up on at 1-1.

The screenshot below shows the outcome. Oh to have laid U5.5 at half time for a grand at 1.01 / 2!!!! Or to have backed AU at 50 odd for a tenner! Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but not always the trader's best friend!

Well, what would / could I have done?

In my previous post I mentioned that Brazillian games often result in either a 0-0 half time score, or a goalfest in the first half. The game I posted about proved to be the former, but Simon, quite reasonably, asks what I would (and by extension, could) I have done had it been the latter.

Before I go on I should just say that to an extent that Brazillian game the other night was a bit of an 'accident' in the sense that I went to pick Gun jr up from work and he wasn't quite ready.... so a five minute trip took closer to 25 mins. Ordinarily when I do this trade I remove the stake from 0-0 when I can leave a small profit on that score whilst at the same time reducing my exposure on the whole trade by a quarter. In other words I don't usually let it run until half time, but it was so close when I got back that I took the chance and, on this occasion, it paid nicely.

The obvious problem with backing the 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 and 1-1 scores is that a goal wipes out two of the four. As with all Correct Score trading the timing of goal(s) plays an important part in your decision making. A very early first goal presents the biggest problem, as the odds on the two remaining scores drift, sometimes massively if the favourite scores first. You need to decide quickly whether to a) let it run b) take a 50% plus hit or c) cover some other scores.

Let it run - a second goal to the leader kills the trade completely leaving you with the choice of chasing other scores or taking the loss on the chin and moving on. The trade will still win if the score stays as it is, or if there is an equaliser and it then stays at 1-1. You might decide to set a 'stop loss' figure, hedging the current score and 1-1 when you can recover, say, 75% of your original stake.

Take a 50% (plus) hit - this is possibly the smart thing to do - bank protection is a crucial part of your success as a trader in my opinion. Assuming you've used £10 stakes on each you'd probably be able to get out for a loss of around £12 - £13 after an early goal by hedging the current score and 1-1. An alternative is to just take what you can out of the current score and leave 1-1 alone as the price will start falling, and the score can still be a winning score for the trade. Of course occasionally a match with a very early goal sees no further goals - and to avoid the frustration of that happening you could lay Over 1.5 goals at very low odds to cover the rest of your original stake. So there are options with this method.

Cover some other scores -  of the original 17 possible scores only thirteen are left after a goal. They can't all be covered and it is easy to find yourself chasing what is already a potentially losing position. Having said that there are some other options to consider. At the risk of actually increasing your overall liabilities you could take advantage of market over reaction to an early goal by laying some of the scores that raced in after an early goal. Possible candidates are 2-0, 2-1 ( or 0-2 1-2) plus 2-2 and Any Unquoted all of which would be significantly lower than their starting price after an early goal. The main problem with this approach is further goals - you might find yourself in a lot of hot water if the goalfest ensues.

Whichever route, or a combination of routes you take you can always do some scalping to reduce your exposure (wealth warning!) - but in my view the key is the do something - decide quickly.

1.01 on Under 2.5 goals over turned in Brazil....

Gun junior needed picking up late this evening so I decided to trade the match in the Campeonata between Parana and ABC. I did one of my favourite trades for Brazillian games, putting £10 each on 0- 0 1-0 0-1 and 1-1. Past experience suggests Brazillian games are often goalless at half time or goalfests by half time. This match fell into the former camp, and I removed my stake on 0-0 at half time leaving nice profits on the other three backed scores and a £30 red on the rest. I drip laid U2.5 from about 1.2 down to 1.1 and then did the same on the U1.5 from 1.15 down, both being more than covered by the green I'd got on 0-0.

I noticed that U2.5 traded at 1.01, but decided to leave it alone as I was only just in profit and had sort of resigned myself to having spent 90 minutes on the game to earn about a tenner! The screenshot below tells the story of the last ten minutes....

The only thing wrong with the whole game was that 1-2 was reached via 0-2 rather than 1-1! Had that happened I really would have hit the jackpot. As it was I managed over £300 green from an initial exposure of £40.....when's Gun junior's next late night shift at his work?

Care for another cucumber sandwich, Vicar?

Whilst not wishing to condone racism, sexism, homophobia or any other 'ism' or 'ia' in any way, am I the only one who thinks our national game is suffering from excessive levels of politcally correct bunkum at the moment?

Whatever the truth in the 'Clattergate' case I've got to say it looks suspiciously like sour grapes on the part of the team I've supported since I was about nine. The catalogue of errors in the officiating on Sunday leaves a lot to be desired, and it could have a massive impact on the outcome of the Premiership this season. I'm reasonably confident that all bar ardent United fans will be thinking along the lines of 'they always get the rub of the green' - it certainly seems that way to me. Obviously we will never know now, but the on-going investigations by both the footballing authorities and the police (who must have something better to do?) will rumble around football for ages. I'm not sure how much, if any, good will come of it.

The level that most of us get to play football at is obviously a long way downscale of the likes of Chelsea and United, yet 'industrial' language, hard tackling and personal banter are all part of the fabric of the game. It can, and does, go too far. But I think we need to reign in a bit or we'll end up with a practically silent, non-physical game where players are frightened to say 'boo' to a ghost or to tackle anyone.

Please, let's not let football get like the parish tea party!

An eventful evening's trading tonight, the highlight of which was doubling up on a previous lay of Reading (at 3-0) after they scored a fourth against the Gooners. Not normally one to cheer Arsenal goals, the fourth one, on the stroke of full time made me a handsome green this evening - proving that sometimes getting in deeper is the way to get out greener.

Odds on laying in the long term markets...

I haven't in the past got involved in any of the long term markets featuring league winners or relegation candidates this early in the season. I dabbled rather successfully in the closing stages of the Premiership last season when a judicious lay of United at 1.42 was helped enormously when Everton held them to a 4-4 draw, despite looking like a losing trade as that particular game got under way. We all know what happened after that, and it's fair to say that the Premiership doesn't usually go quite that close to the wire at the top end.

Bet19 produces an interesting and well written blog. For this season he has invested a £500 bank on the long term markets surrounding the Premiership, aiming to double his investment over the course of the season. He charts his progress periodically, giving his thoughts and reasons for his actions and ponderings. A recent post caused me to question his intention of taking a loss on a particular lay he'd made after only 7 games, but what it also did was cause me to have a bit of a poke around some of these markets.

Regular readers will know that I like trading French football, so my first port of call was the Winners market for Ligue 1. The screengrab below shows the situation after just 8 games.

Marseilles currently top Ligue 1 with 19 points, PSG are second with 16 followed by Lyons with 15. And PSG can be laid for 1.39. When I laid United at 1.42 the season was 30 odd matches old. Yet here I can lay PSG for a lower price after 8 matches!

I moved on to Serie A. Juve and Napoli neck and neck after 7 matches, Juve 1.6 to lay. Anderlecht odds on in the Jupiler league market, currently lying third and a few points off the pace.

These are the standouts, and I must admit to having nowhere near the depth of knowledge about any of these clubs or leagues that I have of the Premiership. But surely these prices are immensely layable, not necessarily as a straight bet but as a longer term trade.

I haven't placed any lay bets as yet as at the moment I don't feel I understand sufficiently the dynamics of these markets, and some of the lesser leagues suffer from poor liquidity, but my interest has been aroused and I shall be looking at them again over the coming weeks. My experience of English football suggests that Christmas is really the earliest that one can take a truly objective view of league tables, and I wonder whether that is the case with some of these other leagues.

It would be interesting to hear from readers who have greater experience of these markets - I wonder if any of them also think these prices are too low too early?

A funny old night in the Champions League

Up and down, you might say, but fortunately not out!

It all started swimmingly enough with a lay of AC Milan in Match Odds when they were 0-2 to Zenit, followed by a tasty little LTD (something I rarely do, these days) at 2-2 for a healthy profit as AC scored a third toward the end of the game.

The evening games were something of a mixed bag. The City game caught me out, as I left it alone in the first half whilst listening on the radio. It sounded as if there could have been about 6 goals before the break, in fact some wag in chat said 'Hart 0 Dortmund 0 ' at half-time. Convinced there would be goals in the second half I laid U3.5 goals for too much money at too high a price. The (rather lucky for City) 1-1 scoreline featured goals that came just too late to make anything of that particular piece of inspired trading.

Better things came of the Porto v PSG tie where a back of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 paid dividends when Porto nicked a late goal, just after I'd hedged most of my 0-0 profit. The Gooners flattered to deceive as usual, and I couldn't resist a back of 0-0 pre-match. I drip laid my way out of that £2 at a time, putting the same £2 on Any Unquoted as the price rose for a scratch on all bar that score. Shame the fourth goal didn't materialise as I chose to leave it there rather than doing the smart thing which would have been to hedge at 2-1 and then drip it back in again to at least leave some green all over the market.

As usual these days I seemed completely capable of totally avoiding both games that had the best trading opportunites for the old Scatter Gun - namely the Shalke and 'Boro games although I know a few made good greens on both of them. The only other little light in the corner came from laying Real at 0-2 and greening immediately Ajax pulled one back. Good job I did as RM duly came out 1-4 winners.

So, all in all, an evening of missed opportunities really! I finished up about £20 down so no disasters and it was enjoyable trying to pull it all together.

I'm intending to have a much better night in the Europa League tomorrow night. I'm not going to lose a single trade there. I can say this with absolute confidence, because after last week's heavy losses with this competition I've perfected a new trading strategy especially for this terribly unpredictable league. It's called the 'Leave it alone' trade. And that's what I shall do. Promise.

How much did Tiger cost people last night, I wonder?

In about 6 or 7 scintillating hours of golf, which resulted in the USA snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the Winner's market in the Ryder Cup was an interesting spectacle. The USA went as low as 1.08 - before a any of the twelve singles matches had been closed out! Ridiculous. The Tie, a rare, almost impossibly rare, event traded as low as 1.17. At 13-13 the market resembled what I am more used to looking at before the start of a very close football match, with all three outcomes priced around the three mark. Close to £20,000,000 had been matched in just that market.

When Kaymer sank that put on the 18th green to retain the Ryder Cup a Tie was very much the most likely result. The final pair, Woods and Molinari, were on the fairway and Woods was 1 up.. so unless he lost the hole the Americans would tie the contest.

I'm sure I'm not alone in being stunned when he missed a putt you'd normally put your house on him making, and then in a display of great sportsmanship (I think...) he conceded both the hole, and, effectively, the Tie. Interviewed afterwards he said:

"To be honest I didn't really pay that much attention…after that all went down, my putt was useless. It was inconsequential. So I hit it too quick and gave him his putt and it was already over,"

The 'inconsequential' putt did have some consequences for some of Britain's biggest bookies, however...

Ladbrokes admitted Tiger's actions cost them £650,000 while Coral took a hit for £400,000. Sky Bet were another company that lost big.
"No one bets on a tie. It cost us just over £650,000 last night on Tiger's miss. Tiger is not a bookie's friend this morning," a Ladbrokes spokesperson told the Daily Mail. 

I'm sure not too many people reading this will be crying in their beer for the bookies, but I'd be very surprised if there aren't a good number of people who'd backed the Tie into nearly single figures nursing severe intentions of causing Tiger irreparable personal injury this morning.

In Tiger's defence the event was, indeed, already over and done with. The Europeans were celebrating and it's not hard to imagine how deflated he must have felt, probably emotionally drained and in need of a pint. That's how I feel trudging off the 18th having lost on the 17th, and I for one will forgive him for not concentrating on the putt in the way he would if were a putt to win the Masters.

When I said the Tie would come in .....

...what I meant was to about 6 to eight maybe. I certainly did not expect it to trade as low as 1.17 and for Tiger to slide a seven footer past and concede the hole so Europe won the cup, rather than 'merely' retaining it!

And what a pleasure it was to be in the TradingFootball chatroom with half a dozen guys scalping the highly volatile markets from about eight o'clock tonight. At one point I laid the Yanks at 1.08 for a grand. Unfortunately I hedged at 1.18. Instead of hanging in and getting out at 2. Or 5. Or 20. Or, best of all, 1000. My old habit of failing to stick with winning trades comes to the fore again.

I'm not going to dwell on it - it's obviously a personality defect of some sort and I made a nice amount as it was.

The hero of the Europe team, even though he's a bloody Gooner, was Ian Poulter. Why he can't turn it on as well on his own account as he does as a team member is something that probably perplexes him as much as it does me. Well done Poults and the rest of the guys.... will they win BBC Sports Personality Team event I wonder? There isn't a market for it at the moment, but if there were I'd back them!

The Ryder Cup is too close to call.....

.... so you might wonder why the Tie is available at 14! With so many pairs matches and the singles on the final day it is highly unlikely that it will be a tie...the last tie was in 1989. But I've sat on the edge of my seat watching or listening to the Ryder Cup many times now, watching the scores ebb and flow, and I reckon that  the Tie price will trade lower than 14 at some point over the weekend.

The only reason I can come up with to explain how the USA are 1.7 favourites is home advantage. Without wishing to offend anyone, the American crowds tend to be more..... vocal in their partisanship than the more reserved European galleries. I hope the Yanks can contain their whooping and hollering a little bit this year - and that their team and WAGs show a little more consideration than they did at Brookline a few years ago when they 'invaded' the 17th green when Olazabal  had yet to hole out.

It's golf, chaps, not the rumble in the jungle!

Fast starts can be a blessing, or a plague...

Anyone interested in trading the in-play soccer markets could do a lot worse than take a look at  a post by The Sultan. I'm not going to repeat any of it here, you can read it for yourself, but the gist of the post is that our preconceptions sometimes colour our judgement when it comes to trading certain leagues in certain countries. Regular readers will know that I favour French football for my particular strategy - yet if you asked most traders who don't operate in these markets I'd offer odds on that they'd say something along the lines of 'boring, few goals, lots of 0-0's'. Hmm - have a look, guys!

Another point that comes across from Sultan's musings is that a fast (or, by implication, a slow) start to a football match does not necessarily mean the game will continue in that vein. By way of illustration consider two games this week that I got involved with - one a pleasure the other little short of a nightmare!

Both matches took place  in what I will refer to as the League Cup. This competition is a bit of a strange one in that it seems to be approached by some managers with little serious intent, by others as a 'blooding ground' for rising young talent and by yet others as the only realistic chance of silverware this season. It is, therefore, potentially both a trader's paradise and nemesis. Checking the teamsheets is no sure fire way of judging a match as lots of players are going to be relatively unknown... in short it's a bit of a lottery.

On Tuesday Chelsea took on Wolves at the Bridge. They were, unsurprisingly, heavy odds on favourites and  fielded a strong team. My experience of Chelsea is that they are usually slow starters and I was therefore happy to take them on with a lay in the Half  Time market where they were priced at 1.65. This is a trade I quite often do with strong favourites who are odds on in that market, the intention being to trade out at about the fifteen to twenty minute mark for a decent profit. A goal to the favourites is the obvious danger, one to the underdogs is a 'Brucie Bonus'! For those unfamiliar with the half time market it works in exactly the same way as the full time market, except, of course, that the effect of time decay is more marked as there is less time and usually very little 'injury' time. Of course, the Blues came swiftly out of the blocks and were two nil up in the blink of an eye leaving me with a large red right at the start of the evening. The addition of a third (after I'd laid Any Unquoted - believing it would all settle down for a few minutes :-( ) killed the trade stone dead. I was in a fairly uncomfortable position with a hefty three figure loss staring me in the face. I laid the AU again for an unseemly amount of money and sat and waited to be steamrollered. Fortunately it somehow stayed 3-0 until half time at which point I decided that discretion was the better part of valour and took a small red overall and gracefully withdrew.

On Wednesday evening there was an interesting match in prospect between QPR and Reading, both strong contenders for relegation from the Premiership this year. It's hard to imagine either manager relishing a potentially long League Cup campaign distracting his side from what will possibly (probably?) be a season long fight for survival, yet I would think that both would see the psychological importance of a morale boosting win against a team in a similar position. My trading decision revolved around two possible outcomes - no goals - or loads of goals. I sided with the the latter, placing £10 on 1-1, £5 on 2-2 and £2 on 3-3.

At 1-1 after 16 minutes I was sitting reasonably pretty. With large chunks of money on 2-2 and 3-3 I felt able to lay Over 2.5 at 1.11, a trade I stayed with until half time. Sure enough the game settled down, and at one point I wondered if 1-1 would likely be the full time result. I drip laid 1-1 from the start of the second half, and waited with a growing sense of anticipation as QPR took a 2-1 lead, Reading equalised (green out of 2-2!) and then took a 2-3 lead. At this point with a handsome green figure on the 2.5 market and a three figure sum on all scores bar 3-3, which had a boatload more, I took the decision to leave the trade as it was - a QPR equaliser would have been a definite 'cake icer'. Unfortunately it wasn't to be.

Should I have traded out of 3-3 at 2-3? With the benefit of 20:20 hindsight, absolutely! But I think sometimes when you've already landed a nice profit it pays to be a little bit greedy and hold out for the jackpot.

Two different fast start outcomes there - and between them they embody, to me anyway, the challenge and thrill of  in-play soccer trading. But I wouldn't like one every night... a nice, easy, straightforward 1-1 in France or Argentina normally suits me just fine!

Coulda, woulda, shoulda

In my post about low liability laying I wrote that a seemingly suicidal looking trade that I often do is to lay a team who are two goals to the good and heavily odds on. A seemingly fairly non-descript Serie B match between Varese and Bari was 0-0 at half time so I set a second half scatter gun up. Me being me I was trying to be a bit greedy with the odds on 2-0 and hadn't been matched when Varese went 1-0 up. At that point 2-0 was a wipeout but as we were only talking a few quid I let it go. The screenshot below sort of tells the story of a frenetic last 10 minutes or so.

I made a handsome 3 figure green on the game as I had taken 2-2 at 55 for a couple of quid at half time. But, for reasons that I can't explain, I failed to lay Varese in the 83rd minute at 2-0. Didn't even look at the price but if I were a betting man I'd say sub 1.1.

It just goes to show how a seemingly invincible lead can be extremely fragile, and how at the sort of odds we'd have been talking about so few of these lays need to come in for the technique to pay overall.

P.S. I really must find a decent online Thesaurus or dig around in the depths of my memory banks to English 'O' Level days. It seems I've used the word 'seemingly' three times in as many paragraphs. Any alternatives please feel free to suggest them!

An apology...

Eddie over at A Football Trader's Path took me to task over what he calls a 'throwaway statement' - his concerns being summed up thus:

Hmm, is that last part really true, I said to myself. Do more games that are 3-0 at half-time end-up with the winning team still on three goals? Well, this immediately stuck in my brain, and I just had to check out the veracity, or otherwise, of this casually lobbed-in sentence. 

Of course he then proceeds to do what I obviously hadn't done, i.e. a little bit of digging into the stats. He only looked at the Premier League but it is apparent that my statement was a little..... debateable at best! He makes reference deeper into his post about this being more of a 'hunch' on my part rather than an established fact. He's right in the sense that I hadn't taken the trouble to research the figures as he had, but the statement was made in the light of my using this little method of laying Any Unquoted when a team is three goals up for the past two seasons and being ahead despite the odd loss.

I'm not about to go digging into the stats in other leagues, people so motivated can do that for themselves, but I feel an apology is due.

I should not have written what I wrote presented as a fact without backing it up, whether or no I supplied the 'evidence' in the post. Had I phrased it slightly differently I could have got my point across without implying that the trade  I was suggesting was almost a sure fire winner. In my comment on Eddie's post I did qualify my approach to that particular trade.

Hopefully anyone reading the post and thinking of putting any of it into practice would be intelligent enough to assess the situation for themselves, including any research they deem necessary.

The post that Eddie took me to task over stemmed from a discussion about morality in trading. And whilst I have no qualms about winning money from other Betfair players (whatever their state of mind!) I would hate to think that someone lost a tidy sum from entering a trade s/he'd read about on here based on an unsubstantiated statement. So, going forward, I'll endeavour to be a little less lackadaisical is my approach to writing about the motivation behind certain trades that I do.

The key points about deciding to enter any trade, to me, are those I mentioned before...

1) Is it a valid trade?
2) Can I afford the loss if it goes wrong?
3) Can I live with the result?

This is true whether the trade under consideration is one of your own making, from a 'system' you are following or from an idea gleaned from some lunatic you don't know personally writing on the interweb!

P.S. No sooner had I published this post (written in part yesterday evening before heading out to a party!) that I noticed that Eddie has posted again on this subject. As usual, his points are well worth reading!